Major predictions made by the ecosystem model are as
1. Continuation of the status quo without mitigation measures will
lead to further fishing down the marine food web and shifts in ecosystem
structure with a high probability of ecosystem collapse and attendant
loss of economic and social benefits.
2. Complete closure of Hong Kong waters to all fishing leads to rapid
rebuilding of the marine ecosystem, however resumption of fishing
at current fleet and effort levels negates these benefits in about
3. The combination of AR and "no-take" fisheries protection
areas confers significant ecological and economic benefits.
4. The benefits of large "no-take"
outweigh AR placement, however, AR are beneficial in the "no
plan" or status quo scenario.
5. A trawl ban in Hong Kong waters would lead to important gains in
biomass, benefits to remaining fishing sectors and substantial long-tern